Search results for "Hindsight bias"
showing 5 items of 5 documents
Why retail investors traded equity during the pandemic? An application of artificial neural networks to examine behavioral biases
2021
Behavioral biases are known to influence the investment decisions of retail investors. Indeed, extant research has revealed interesting findings in this regard. However, the literature on the impact of these biases on millennials' trading activity, particularly during a health crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the equity recommendation intentions of such investors, is limited. The present study addressed these gaps by investigating the influence of eight behavioral biases: overconfidence and self-attribution, over-optimism, hindsight, representativeness, anchoring, loss aversion, mental accounting, and herding on the trading activity and recommendation intentions of millennials …
The winner knew it all? Conspiracy beliefs and hindsight perspective after the 2016 US general election
2018
Abstract The political campaigns preceding the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election received worldwide media attention that many people followed with great interest. Before the election, there were rumors of how the outcome of this election might be rigged, there was additional suspicion that individuals who were not eligible to vote were seen at voting booths, and other assumptions that might be connected to a conspiracy mentality. In this contribution, we report the results of one case study (N = 173) regarding inter-individual differences in conspiracy mentality, uncertainty, and hindsight perceptions of inevitability and foreseeability between voters of the major parties' candidates, namely,…
Cultural Interpretations of Global Information? Hindsight Bias after Reading Wikipedia Articles across Cultures
2017
Summary: Hindsight bias is the mistaken belief that an outcome could have been foreseen once it is known. But what happens after learning about an event? Can reading biased media amplify hindsight distortions? And do people from different cultural backgrounds — with different cognitive thinking styles — draw equal conclusions from equal media reports? We report two studies with Wikipedia articles and samples from different cultures (Study 1: Germany, Singapore, USA, Vietnam, Japan, Sweden, N = 446; Study 2: USA, Vietnam, N = 144). Participants read one of two article versions (foresight and hindsight) about the Fukushima Nuclear Plant and estimated the likelihood, inevitability, and foresee…
Debiasing media articles–reducing hindsight bias in the production of written work.
2021
Written work such as Wikipedia articles can contain hindsight bias. Since reading biased texts can, in turn, increase recipients’ individual hindsight bias, it is an important agenda to examine effective debiasing strategies. In the present study (N = 164), we tested whether providing authors with debiasing strategies can effectively reduce hindsight bias in their content. Specifically, participants wrote an article based on several newspaper articles about a dam and we manipulated whether they received event knowledge (i.e., dam collapse) and a debiasing intervention. Ten blind coders rated the extent to which the produced articles were suggestive of the disaster. Debiasing was successful …
What drives increases in hindsight impressions after the reception of biased media content?
2021
Prior research has shown that reading biased media content (e.g., Wikipedia articles) can increase recipients' hindsight bias. It remained unclear, however, which features of the biased texts led to such an increase. We examined this question in a longitudinal experimental study (N = 190). Specifically, we tested whether repeated exposure to already known information (H₁), a more coherent presentation of the information (H₂), or the presentation of novel information (H₃) affected readers' hindsight impressions of likelihood, inevitability, and foreseeability. To this end, participants initially learned about an event by reading several short news, and, 1 week later, received one of several …